Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.920051 2.024911 2.134658 2.258475 2.394758 2.540733 2.709642
2025-04-20 1.774895 1.922114 2.083332 2.274420 2.496659 2.749423 3.062271
2025-04-27 1.692560 1.867889 2.066287 2.310300 2.606499 2.960150 3.423637
2025-05-04 1.630677 1.826674 2.054360 2.343030 2.706367 3.159034 3.784100
2025-05-11 1.556608 1.763377 2.008410 2.326471 2.738476 3.269922 4.036949
2025-05-18 1.495357 1.710317 1.969466 2.312860 2.769260 3.377010 4.291636
2025-05-25 1.439992 1.660544 1.930390 2.294453 2.789501 3.468053 4.530013
2025-06-01 1.390602 1.615172 1.893545 2.275213 2.805090 3.551138 4.763202
2025-06-08 1.354959 1.585042 1.873984 2.276640 2.847680 3.674557 5.073041
2025-06-15 1.330484 1.567687 1.869543 2.297304 2.917613 3.843169 5.479459
2025-06-22 1.287976 1.525019 1.829393 2.265712 2.908309 3.887698 5.675933
2025-06-29 1.246780 1.482465 1.787461 2.229081 2.888436 3.912648 5.838767
2025-07-06 1.202203 1.434534 1.737172 2.179136 2.846790 3.901170 5.936636
2025-07-13 1.185145 1.422519 1.735134 2.198267 2.911991 4.071756 6.417079
2025-07-20 1.174496 1.418477 1.743537 2.232543 3.002611 4.294118 7.048838
2025-07-27 1.163392 1.413239 1.749768 2.263485 3.089577 4.519086 7.740065
2025-08-03 1.138061 1.387626 1.726152 2.247855 3.098436 4.601553 8.119715
2025-08-10 1.115046 1.364469 1.705122 2.235001 3.110743 4.691196 8.538052
2025-08-17 1.091895 1.340429 1.681943 2.217614 3.113911 4.763032 8.928292
2025-08-24 1.069695 1.317089 1.658974 2.199434 3.114339 4.829139 9.320619
2025-08-31 1.054315 1.302866 1.648738 2.200782 3.148898 4.967830 9.962020
2025-09-07 1.044860 1.296678 1.649967 2.220307 3.216959 5.184156 10.918103
2025-09-14 1.022077 1.270960 1.621485 2.190455 3.193053 5.199733 11.228212